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renee_gwen_bucket_retry_nc

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testcases/emulator_verified/renee_gwen_bucket_retry_nc.json

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Second deterministic Renee/Gwen grouping discriminator. WIP attacks with Renee 3/3/3 and Gwen 2/1/0, fielding 500 T6 Lancers into minxxx's 900 T6 Infantry. Using the exact stats from the preceding 620-vs-920 report, separate Renee/Gwen buckets with Gwen's stated 10% predict 330 survivors; same bucket at 10% or separate buckets at an effective 5% predict 321; same bucket at an effective 5% predicts 316; and no effective Gwen S1 predicts 312. Corresponding approximate Renee S1 activation counts are 25, 26, 27, and 28. These candidates and the decision rule are frozen before capture; the report's exact captured stats will be substituted afterward without changing the candidate models.

Latest-Run Stats

PassP
Testdeterministic
μ sim321.0000
μ game318.0000
bias %0.21%
n sim1
n game1
t
q
Waivedno

Bias % Over Time

Armies Under Test

Attacker heroes: Renee, Gwen · Defender heroes: (none)

Attacker

[BBQ]XxWIPxX

Heroes

  • Renees1=3 / s2=3 / s3=3
  • Gwens1=2 / s2=1 / s3=0

Troops

  • lancer_t6: 500

Stats

ClassAtkDefLethHp
inf230.5230.3171.2181.8
lanc460.1457.9243.2228.3
mark314.2311.0175.7176.4

Defender

[ARK]Piddlyminxxx

Heroes

(no heroes)

Troops

  • infantry_t6: 900

Stats

ClassAtkDefLethHp
inf282.7279.5226.3221.0
lanc275.2278.5216.2217.5
mark281.0286.0226.3221.4

Expected Battle Reports

game_report_result (ground truth)

#Attacker lossesDefender losses
13180

Run History

RunStartAdjS nG nS μG μBias%tqPW
6dbe43938/25-0.05%11321.0318.00.21%P
bf9bc0368/15-0.05%11322.0318.00.29%P